As we known in gambling world is always a 50/50 rate of winning or losing. Even so life itself is a gambling where options available to us anywhere and anytime, its depends on our decision and make the most beneficial and advantage on top of our choice. In world of gambling is the theory of Martingale. The Martingale is a tradeoff. You trade an excellent chance of winning for a punishing loss if you do lose. That’s a pro and a con.
Many other gambling writers dismiss the Martingale out of hand. For example, the Wizard of Odds famously says that “all betting systems are equally worthless”. But that’s true only if your criteria is really narrow, like whether the system reduces the house edge (which is the Wizard’s criteria). To me, that’s like saying that bicycles are worthless because they don’t go as fast as airplanes. Millions of bicycle-riders would beg to differ. The Martingale won’t reduce the house edge, sure, but it can provide entertainment and it gives you an excellent chance of winning in the short term — which makes it far from “worthless”. Risky? Absolutely. Worthless? No.
What is the Martingale Betting System?
Here’s how the Martingale works: You make your standard bet, say RM 5, on an even-money bet, such as red in roulette or the Pass Line in craps. Every time you win you make that same bet for the next round. If you lose, you double your bet for the next round, and keep doubling until you win. When you eventually have a winning round after a series of losing rounds, your net win will be RM 5. In fact, every time you win a bet, you’ll be up another RM 5, regardless of past losses.
Here’s an example: You bet RM 5. You lose, so you bet RM 10. You lose again, so you bet RM 20. You lose again, so you bet RM 40. You lose again, so you bet RM 80. Man, it’s not your night! Then you win. Your net win on that series was RM 5. You’re now ahead RM 5.
If you could always double your bet when you lose you’d be guaranteed to always come out ahead. But in real life you can’t always double your bet. First of all, you’ll run out of money at some point and be unable to double your bet. If you start with RM 5 and lose thirteen bets in a row (it happens), you’ll have to cough up RM 40,960 for your next bet. Ouch.
Bet even if you had that much money, you might not be able to bet it anyway, because casinos limit how much you can bet. It wouldn’t be a problem in Vegas, where you can bet up to RM 1 million in the ultra-exclusive high limit rooms at the tonier casinos. (These are not the n high limit rooms adjacent to the main casino floor, they’re on another floor entirely, and most folks will never see them.) In most other parts of the country and the world, you’d have a hard time betting more than RM 5000 at once.
So that’s the risk of the Martingale: If you lose enough times in a row, you’ll go broke and not have enough money to make the next bet, or you’ll bump up against the table limit. So while the Martingale can work in the short term , the longer you play, the more likely you are to have a long losing streak during which you couldn’t double your bets high enough. How short is short enough? Well, the shorter the better. An hour in a live casino gives you about an 80% chance of coming out ahead in craps or roulette. You can certainly play for longer, but the longer you play, the more likely you are to lose.
Table of Martingale theory with 10 rounds probability of losing.
Increase your odds of winning from 46% to 82%
Graph of Martingale betting strategies
So now that we know how the system works, exactly how much does it increase our chances of winning? The answer depends on many factors: which game you play, the amount of your initial bet, how much money you have to gamble (your “bankroll”), and how long you play. Let’s take a game of craps, where you bet RM 5 on the pass line, you play for an hour (43 spins), and you have RM 1000 total to play with. Betting RM 5 every time (no Martingale), you’ll win only about 46% of the time, with an average win of RM 25. You’ll lose the other 54% of the time, with an average loss of RM 27.
Now let’s use the same setup except we’ll use the Martingale, and double our bet after every loss. All of a sudden our chances of winning our one-hour session shoot up to 82%! And when we win our average win is RM 100 (much better than the RM 25 from flat-betting), but when we lose our average loss is a whopping RM 528. Bing! There’s the tradeoff.
But the longer you use the Martingale, the more likely you are to lose several bets in a row and then run out of money. In fact, if we use the example above with an eight-hour session, then our chances of coming out ahead with the Martingale are only 37%. (Our chances with flat-betting RM 5 every time are 41%.)
Another thing that decreases your chances of winning is having a smaller bankroll. You have to have enough money to double up your bets when you hit a long losing streak. In our one-hour example above, we had an 82% chance of winning if we brought RM 1000 to the table. But if we bring only RM 500 to the table, our chances drop to 69%.
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